The Indiana gubernatorial race has captured national attention, emerging as one of the top two governor contests to watch in the 2024 election cycle, according to the Democratic Governors Association (DGA). This heightened interest was underscored by a rare visit to Indianapolis on Tuesday by DGA Chair and Kansas Governor Laura Kelly, who met with volunteers supporting Democratic candidate Jennifer McCormick's campaign. Kelly, who also recently visited New Hampshire to back another Democratic gubernatorial hopeful, drew comparisons between McCormick's bid and her own successful campaign for governor in 2018.
"I'm here because I think in both of those states, we have excellent candidates with excellent chances of getting across the finish line," Kelly told reporters outside the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local 481 office, where state teachers’ union members were phone banking for McCormick.
Race Shifts from Safe to Competitive
Kelly's visit marks another sign of the race’s growing competitiveness, as McCormick battles Republican U.S. Senator Mike Braun and Libertarian Donald Rainwater. Once viewed as a sure win for Braun, the contest has tightened in recent months, prompting the DGA to invest $1.1 million into McCormick's campaign in October alone. Meanwhile, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has poured $1 million into Braun’s effort to retain Republican control of the governor's mansion.
Adding to the momentum, a poll conducted by GBAO in September labeled the race a “toss-up,” placing McCormick just three points behind Braun. Of those surveyed, 44% backed Braun, 41% supported McCormick, and 9% chose Rainwater. The poll results have led some analysts to revise their ratings of the race from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.”
Unforced Errors and Libertarian Threat
Braun’s campaign has faced a series of challenges, including a digitally altered ad that failed to include required disclosures and controversial remarks from his ultraconservative running mate, Micah Beckwith. Compounding these issues, the Indiana GOP has been running attack ads against Libertarian candidate Rainwater, whose presence in the race is seen as a potential spoiler for Braun by siphoning off conservative voters.
Parallels Between McCormick and Kelly
Governor Kelly drew several parallels between McCormick’s campaign and her own run for Kansas governor in 2018. At that time, Kelly faced a Republican-dominated political landscape and a divisive GOP candidate in then-Secretary of State Kris Kobach. Like McCormick, Kelly relied on disaffected Republican voters, particularly those uncomfortable with the extreme rhetoric of her opponent. She also emphasized pocketbook issues, as McCormick has done, while not avoiding cultural topics such as abortion rights and cannabis legalization.
Both Kelly and McCormick have sought to appeal to rural voters, an essential demographic for victory. McCormick’s running mate hails from rural Indiana, signaling her intent to reach beyond urban centers for broader support.
Momentum Builds Toward Election Day
When Kelly first met McCormick earlier this year, McCormick’s chances seemed slim, but Kelly remained confident, seeing reflections of her own journey. "I also saw myself in Jennifer," Kelly remarked during her visit.
With just weeks remaining until the November 5 election, McCormick’s campaign has transitioned from a longshot to a legitimate contender. As national attention continues to grow, both the DGA and RGA are closely watching this increasingly competitive race, recognizing its potential to reshape Indiana’s political landscape.